Welcome to another edition of the weekly college football preview. Last week’s article served fairly well, and, if you bet them all should have ended in the positives. Although we may not have as many undefeated matchups, we have another solid slate of games as conference play continues to carry on. And, as almost always, we can some value in the betting board for the week. Note: All projections referenced in this article are based off of Adam McClintock’s rankings. and projections. If you have not checked out his work I highly suggest doing so and subscribing and contributing to his patreon. He does outstanding work and the content is well worth the subscription prices.
Early Slate
#6 Oklahoma vs. #21 Texas (12:00 EST)
This week’s college football slate brings us one of the biggest rivalries in the country when the 6th ranked Oklahoma Sooners take on the 21st ranked Texas Longhorns in the Red River (Shootout/Rivalry/Game/whatever you want to call it). The market is floating around a 3/3.5 point spread with a 63.5 point total. Both teams have somewhat struggled in their own way this season. The Longhorns lost an early season non-con game to surprise Arkansas. Boomer Sooner on the other hand is undefeated but has had some very close calls and are 0-4 ATS against FBS teams with their lone ATS win coming against WCU.
The Longhorns went on to make a QB change and are now being lead by Casey Thompson under center. Since the change they have seemed like a better squad, winning and covering every game since the Arkansas loss. The defense’s are the major question marks for me in this game. Although I am a bit more confident in Oklahoma’s D, Oklahoma’s offense has been more of a concern than Texas’ offense. These factors have me ready to bet the Over. I will be kind of monitoring the line in the morning to see if I can get it at 62 or 62.5. Although, it seems the market is flattening out at 63.5. Also consider a money line bet on the longhorns, more as a gut feeling.
Other’s I’m Considering: Arkansas Money line at +160 or better
Mid-Day Games
#4 Penn State @ #3 Iowa (4:00 EST)
The biggest game of the week take place in Iowa City at 4:00 PM EST. The Penn State Nittany Lions hit the road to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in a game with possible playoff implications. This is the game I am most excited for as a fan, and will certainly not miss the opportunity to get some skin in the game. I had been thinking Iowa was somewhat fraudulent all season (much like Notre Dame). However they did put on a good showing last week against Maryland. On the flip side Penn State is a team I have been a buyer on all season. McClintock’s pre-season projections had Penn State as a potential playoff contender. And, although I didn’t wager on them to win the conference or their win total, I have backing them with my doll hairs all season long.
Well, I am going back to the well again this week and playing them on the money line at anything plus money (I already got down on PSU+115 and may double down). I will also be betting the Under 41. I think Iowa will try to go super slow as usual. Penn State may get a bit quick, but nothing I am that concerned about. There is also a possibility of some serious winds so I am going to plug my nose and back the under despite the low number.
Evening Slate
#9 Michigan @ Nebraska (7:30 PM EST)
The Michigan Wolverines will travel to Lincoln, NE to take on a the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And, maybe its just an illusion, but Nebraska might be improving after the Illinois loss. Market-wise it seems curious to me as well that Michigan is ranked 9th, undefeated, and looking good so far this year, and only a 3 point favorite. I do think that Nebraska has played tougher competition than Michigan, and that may help them here along with home field advantage.
Maybe this is a homers play since I am an Ohio State fan, but between the difference in competition so far this year and how close the spread is compared to public sentiment on these teams. I am going to bet Nebraska money line at +120 or better.
Other’s I’m debating: Virginia Tech money line anything plus money v. Notre Dame