Welcome to the weekly college football preview. After the main picks in last week’s article went 4-1 I am hoping to keep it going this week with a stacked slate of ranked matchups. I will highlight some picks throughout the day either in the top tier matchups or my favorite bets. Note: All projections referenced in this article are based off of Adam McClintock’s rankings. and projections. If you have not checked out his work I highly suggest doing so and subscribing and contributing to his patreon. He does outstanding work and the content is well worth the subscription prices.
Noon Games
#8 Arkansas @ #2 Georgia (12:00 EST)
One of the biggest surprise teams of the season so far the 8th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Athens, GA to take on the 2nd ranked Georgia Bulldogs. McClintock’s projections make it a -16.5/17 point game. So the model does not show the most value, however I was reading a twitter thread where McClintock mentioned how much of a change the Razorbacks have seen in their efficiency rankings this year so the model as a whole may not have totally caught up yet.
One thing that has been a huge contribution to Arkansas’ success this year is their defense. Arkansas and Georgia have both also been two of the slower offenses this year. that combination is making me lean to not only Arkansas +18 or better, but also the Under 48.5 or better. It looks this season that the top 4 teams are much closer to the rest of this country and Georgia’s Clemson win is not looking as great as it did at the time. Between the rush rates, offensive tempo, and the defense being the strength of both team I can see a slow grinding close game here. Dogs of +7 or more in low total games also cover at a winning rate.
Other Noon Picks I’ve got my eye on:
*Charlotte +10.5 or better (debating betting it)
*Wake Forest/UL Over 62 (debating betting it)
Afternoon Games
#7 Cincinnati @ #9 Notre Dame (2:30 EST)
Another team looking to make a statement this week are the 7th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats travelling to South Bend, IN to take on the 9th Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It may seem odd the the higher ranked team is looking to make a statement but with this season seeming so wide open at the moment, a group of five team like Cincinnati needs to win these games and impress the playoff committee.
Honestly this pick is more of a fade of Notre Dame than it is a play on Cincinnati for me. I will be on Cincinnati at -125, and would bet -130 or better. I think Notre Dame is fraudulently 4-0. I also think they had a big game last week to make a statement, and if Wisconsin has better QB play they likely beat the Irish. While they may be coming off a bit of a hangover, the Bearcats have likely been looking forward to this game and waiting to make a statement. One of the Bearcats strengths is their defense and Jack Coan has been under pressure all season. On the flip side, ND’s defense has been gashed by almost everyone they played this season.
Other Afternoon Picks I’ve got my eye on:
*Eastern Michigan Moneyline +110 or better (already bet)
*Ole Miss/Bama Under 78 or better (debating betting it)
Evening Games
Air Force @ New Mexico (6:30 EST)
For the evening slate, I will diverge from the top 25 matchups, although I am very interested in watching the Baylor @ Oklahoma State game, I am unsure about a betting position there. My favorite game of the day to bet comes at 6:30 PM EST when the Air Force Academy travels to New Mexico to take on the Lobos as a 10.5 point favorite. McClintock’s projections have the game as a 12.5 point Air Force advantage, and is one of the models most confident games of the week. I bought a point and laid the number with Air Force -10 at -120 odds. I would still lay the number up to 11 honestly.
My favorite bet of the day however comes in this same game as I love the Under as low as 42.5 or better. I personally got 46.5, and am debating re-upping at 45.5. Air Force passes the ball less than anyone in the country, and New Mexico runs the ball a decent amount themselves, while also being one of the least successful offenses in the country. I expect the clock to constantly be running in this game. I will be tuned into this Mountain West game sweating these two for sure!
Other Evening Picks I’ve got my eye on:
* La Tech +18.5 or better (already bet +21)
* PSU -12.5 or better (already bet -10.5)