Week 5 of the college football season has already kicked off with a 31-30 App State win over Marshall. Although they did not win, it was a solid ATS bounce back for Marshall. Despite a lack of top 25 heavyweight matchups this week, there is still some value in the betting markets. This week 5 college football preview will cover some of my favorite picks and games. Note: All projections referenced in this article are based off of Adam McClintock’s rankings. and projections. If you have not checked out his work I highly suggest doing so and subscribing and contributing to his patreon. He does outstanding work and the content is well worth the subscription prices.
12:00 EST Slate
Texas Tech at Texas
The Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns after the Longhorns rebounded from their upset loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks with a win over Rice. The Red Raiders come into the matchup 3-0 on the season with wins over Houston, Stephen F. Austin, and Florida International.
With the Red Raiders and Longhorns averaging 40 and 39 points per game respectively, over 62 points is quite tempting and I may pull the trigger on that one before game time. However, McClintock’s projections have Texas as a 21 point favorite. This is a situation where I have to trust the numbers, and lay the points with the Longhorns. I believe this may be in part due to some market overreaction at Texas losing to Arkansas, and TTU being undefeated. I found a -7.5 juiced to -120 and took that but would be willing to lay anything -10 or better.
3:30 EST Slate
Clemson at N.C. State
The Clemson Tigers will continue to try and get the gears running as smooth as they have in past years as they travel to Raleigh to take on the N.C. State Wolfpack as 10 point favorites. Although McClintock’s projections dont show much value on the number projection Clemson at -9.5. I was buying the Wolfpack coming into the season, and backed them in a letdown against Mississippi State. On the flip side Clemson seems to be struggling with their new pieces as we’ve seen with Ohio State.
I am going to back to the well and back N.C. State and hope for them to put on a better performance at home against a conference foe in Starkville. I think they will be able to give a struggling Clemson team trying to find themselves, and will take the 10 points. I will even have a little sprinkle on the Moneyline at +300 or better.
7:00 EST Slate
West Virginia University at Oklahoma University
The West Virginia Mountaineers travel to Norman, Oklahoma to take on the Sooners in the primetime 7:30 ABC game. The Oklahoma Sooners find themselves in a similar situation as the Tigers and Buckeyes do, somewhat struggling to be operating as smoothly as we have seen in recent years. On the flip side, the Mountaineers have looked good after falling in their season opener to Maryland. I am actually going to have 2 plays in this game. McClintock puts the game at a 14 point Oklahoma advantage, and I will be taking the extra field goal in points with WVU +17 (-105 where I got it). In addition, I will also be betting over 56. The mountaineers offense has been relatively successful this season, flashing some explosiveness, as well as finishing drives. Although they tend to grind some clock out, they are still averaging 39 points a game so far while the Sooners are averaging 46.3. If WVU is going to keep up with Boomer Sooner and keep it within the spread like I believe they will, they are likely going to have to put some scores on the board.
Other Bets I’m Watching
12:00 – Wisonsin -6.5 v. ND, LSU/Miss St. Over 56, and SMU/TCU Over 65.5
3:30 – Texas A&M -4.5/5
7:00 – Tennessee +20