To start this week’s college football preview, we are going to just cut to the chase. Last week did not go great. We hit the Over in the late night Big 12 game, and Kentucky back-dooring UGA with one of the finest timeouts from Mark Stoops I have ever seen in my entire life. Pure artwork. But other than those and the under in Army/Wisconsin. Nebraska wasn’t ever covering. And TCU just could not keep up with Oklahoma’s new and seemingly improved offense behind Caleb Williams. I don’t know why they are running so much smoother with him than Spencer Rattler who has lead the offense to like this before. If I had to come up with a theory, maybe Spencer had more chemistry with teammates that are gone. I have also seen the rumor’s about him being self-centered and partying too much, but I personally have no clue and don’t know the man so I wont say anything like that.
This week we don’t have any top 25 matchups, but it does have some interesting matchups like rising Pitt taking on tumbling Clemson. Or Undefeated Wake Forest taking on the tricky Triple Option in Army West Point. We even get a rivalry game with Notre Dame hosting Southern Cal. Note: All projections referenced in this article are based off of Adam McClintock’s rankings. and projections. If you have not checked out his work I highly suggest doing so and subscribing and contributing to his patreon. He does outstanding work and the content is well worth the subscription prices.
Noon EST Slate
Wake Forest @ Army West Point (12:00 EST)
Wake Forest has been one of the best teams in the ACC this year. Although, one could argue they haven’t played anyone. This may be a spot they slip up in. Part of me wager on Army money line is steeped in numbers, part of is it pure gut feeling.
To start the McClintock projections have the game as a 1.5 point advantage for Wake Forest as opposed to the 3 points the market expects them to win by. The strength I believe of the Wake offense is passing and that happens to be the strongest element of the Black Knights defense. And on the flip side the Army offense which obviously runs the ball a lot in the triple option. While the Wake defense’s weakness is run defense.
Additionally, the triple option generally gives teams fits and I feel like they ruin a lot of upstart teams’ good seasons. between the numbers and my gut, I am locking in Army +3 and money line.
Afternoon Slate
Boston College @ Louisville (4:00 EST)
This afternoon slate of games was tough for me. I like Pitt over Clemson but am not sure how much Clemson name power still carries in the market, I’m not sure if Pitt is for real — they did lose to Western Michigan— and they seem to always play close conference games whether they’re good or bad so I stayed away from that game.
The game I will have a sprinkle on in this time slot is the BC at Louisville game. I think this may just be a bad matchup and maybe some recency bias in the market. BC has lost their last two to Clemson and a good NC State Wolfpaack team. While Louisville has also lost their last two to UVA and Wake, those games were a bit closer with Louisville putting up 30 or more points in each game against shaky defense’s.
It seems looking at offensive and defensive rankings that Louisville’s offense may not be as good as it seems, which matches up poorly for them as BC has a tough defense which ranks highly in almost every category. And to turn the tables, the BC offense is still decent even without Jurkovec although there is some adjusting. But the Louisville defense is not good at all and I think BC will be bale to pull out a win. Therefore I am on BC +5 (wish I got in at 6 or better but oh well), and another money line sprinkle.
Night Slate
University of Southern California @ Notre Dame (7:30 EST)
Although they may not both be ranked with a chance at the playoffs, we still get a blue blood rivalry game this week as the University of Southern California travels to South Bend, IN to take on Notre Dame. You may know how much I have been fading Notre Dame this season, so maybe you already know where I am going here!
I cannot help but fade Notre Dame again, I know USC has been struggling of late but Notre Dame has been a bit fraudulent all season long. In addition to my personal feelings from watching their games, McClintocks rankings also have the game projected as a 3 point advantage for Notre Dame. In a prime time rivalry game, catching a touchdown when the projections I use have it as a field goal? I have to take that nearly every time.
Lock me in for USC +7. Maybe even a third money line sprinkle. We’ll see how I feel come game time.