Welcome to the weekly college football preview. This will also have a little bit about last week’s action since I was unable to get a recap article out earlier this week. Ya know, work and life and what-not. Last week was, rough to say the least… We started by cashing the Over in OU-Texas early in the 3rd quarter, then the Longhorns crumbled and to lose the ML. Immediately after that the Nittany Lions did the same thing. That last TD by Iowa not only won the game and lost the Nittany Lions ML, but also the Under in one fell swoop. And, after those first two games I should have seen it coming. The cornhuskers were winning 29-26 late, and gave up a FG with 3 minutes left to tie it, and another with 1:24 left to lose the game. Rough week, but we’ve been doing well and these weeks happen. Just have to eat it on the chin and keep moving.
This week we have a some good matchups. Maybe not the best slate as a decent chunk of teams are off. Still, we truck along looking for value. Note: All projections referenced in this article are based off of Adam McClintock’s rankings. and projections. If you have not checked out his work I highly suggest doing so and subscribing and contributing to his patreon. He does outstanding work and the content is well worth the subscription prices.
Early Slate
Nebraska @ Minnesota (12:00 PM EST)
I am honestly crazy about many of the noon games from a betting standpoint. I kind of like Nebraska to cover although McClintock’s model has a 3 point game, and I would have rather got it at -3, but I will likely just watch it up until game time and get the best number I can. I think with the Minnesota backfield getting very thin, and Nebraska possibly getting better as the season progresses, Nebraska should win by at least a touchdown. Nebraska’s problems are certainly not on Defense as they have been very good this season. They may be deflated after last week. Or have a chip on their shoulder. Lets hope for the latter.
Afternoon Slate
Kentucky @ Georgia (3:30 EST)
I’m doing it again. I am betting against the Georgia Bulldogs. Not to lose this time, but to not cover. They are not a flukey good team I don’t think. Their passing offense has been very good, they’ve been efficient ranking in the top 20 in efficiency. The defense also ranks in the top 30. Throw in some gambling logic of how tough it can be to cover large spreads in low total games, and i think I have myself a bet on the wildcats. If the defense can slow up the Georgia rushing attack just a little bit, and the offense can score more than 10 points I think Kentucky can cover +21.5.
Night Games
TCU @ Oklahoma (7:30 EST)
Speaking of hangover or deflated spots. I am going to try and catch the Sooners coming out sloppy after Red River. That is why I am going to bet TCU at +14. I have not bet it yet but am going to watch it and if I have to buy the hook I will, but I am trying not to as it is currently at +13.5. I also already bet over 66 but it is getting lower so that sucks. But the TCU I will be going heavy on. I think QB Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans can do what it takes to gash the Sooners D much like the Longhorns did. Combine that with the hangover spot and I really like this bet. I like the over regardless if I got a bad number if Oklahoma comes out flat, and can catch up to make it close. Surprise! I am also going to bet TCU money line.
Also, I bet Army v. Wisconsin Under 42.5 as soon as it was available to me but would’nt blame you for not betting under 38. I do also lean Army +14 if you are interested in a slug-fest.